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Introduction
Management Science: A field of study that uses statistics and mathematics
to solve business problems. Today, these business problems are solved with the help of the computer. Management Science is also sometimes referred
to as
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Operations
Research (OR)
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Decision
Science
The mathematical approaches used by Operational Research in business has
very little resemblance to the typical Operation Research (OR) used in
International Public Health. For the most part OR in International Public
Health produces a descriptive evaluation of the existing program and make a
few suggestions for alternates with little or any mathematical analysis.
Cost-Benefit analysis in International Health does a little better job on the
accounting, but seldom offers mathematical analysis using any of the tools as
listed below. International Public Health has a long way to go.
Modeling in Decision Making
Modeling has several benefits to the organization.
Benefits
- Modeling presents a simplified and more readily understandable view of
the real world.
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Using
a model is less expensive than having to develop a complete research
project in order to analyze a process. Besides being less expensive, a
model can help avoid costly mistakes that might result from poor decision
making.
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Models
deliver needed information on a more timely basis. Timeliness is also an
issue when vital data will not become available until some later point in
time. In these cases, we might create a model to help predict the missing
data to assist in current decision making (Ragsdale, 1998)
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Models
can be used where it would be impossible to do in reality.
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Models
can be used to explore alternate strategies and answer "what if"
statements.
Uncertainty is very much a part of all planning processes. Modeling will enable
the planners to take this uncertainty into consideration when making their
plans. At every point in the planning, the previous plans should be
reevaluated based on the new information and predictions.
It is better to have plans for any contingency rather than to be
"surprised."
Management is based on "prediction."
Management is based on prediction, prediction of number of clients, prediction
of services offered...
Calculates the "risks" and the "return on"
investments.
Without a clear understanding of what is possible, it is impossible to
calculate the risks of the project.
Modeling Techniques
- Optimization and Linear Programming
- Sensitivity Analysis and the Simplex Method
- Network Modeling
- Integer Linear Programming
- Goal Programming
- Nonlinear Programming
- Regression Analysis
- Discriminate Analysis
- Time Series
- Simulation
- Simulation using Risk
- Queuing Theory
- Project Management
- Decision Analysis
The Primary Health Care Operations Research (PRICOR) a project
of the Center for Human Services and funded by the United States Agency for
International Development (AID) had an excellent start in 1985 with
several Methodology Papers and Issue Papers. However, very little seems to have
been done since then. It is well worth the time to read these papers.
Links and Downloads
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CDTDC: The aim of the Centre for Decision sciences in Tropical Disease Control
is to study the public health consequences of tropical diseases and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of control strategies. An essential part of the
research is the development and application of simulation models describing the transmission and the natural history of
disease in human populations, including the impact of control measures. In recent years, research has been extended to
analysis of field data, and design and support of field studies on the Epidemiology
of diseases and on the effectiveness of
control measures. Research activities are carried out in close collaboration with existing control projects; training and
technology transfer is an integral part of the collaboration. The models are used to support health policy decision
making. The research started in 1985 with applied modeling activities for the Onchocerciasis Control Programme
in West Africa (OCP) of the WHO, which resulted in the ONCHOSIM microsimulation model for integrated analysis of OCP data and
for planning and evaluation of onchocerciasis control strategies. The results have played an important role in policy making
and strategy development within the programme. This encouraged us to start
modeling efforts for other macroparasitic diseases (schistosomiasis and lymphatic filariasis) and for microparasitic diseases (leprosy,
STDs including HIV/AIDS).
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